Complacency & Concern

  • aren’t people concerned about oligopolies? (see: every industry ever)
  • this isn’t irrational exuberance, [[it’s different this time]]

A Broken Clock

It’s easy to state that all market bears are built from the same genetic makeup, but that’s too simple.

  • macro-econ bears
  • technical analysis-based traders, who regularly flip

The End of Shortselling FA

In one swift blow the practice of trumpeting short hypotheses came to a crashing halt. How? GameStop.

The Renewed Rise of the Retail Investor

The Psychology of Froth

At this point, in traditional, commodity, and cryptocurrency markets it’s tough to find anyone who won’t admit that there’s froth. Froth, as with warmed milk in a cappuccino, amounts to bubbly murkiness, with an inability to see what’s below (in finance, that’d be the ability for accurate price discovery). But, as is obvious from what occurred a year ago, frothiness doesn’t mean immediate collapse:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has nearly doubled since its low last year.
Left: The Nikkei 225 has never recovered from it’s 1989 peak — still roughly 10,000 pts less than 32 years ago. Right: Nasdaq during the dot-com bubble.

Complacency

We’re at that part of the cycle where everyone’s saying “we’re at this part of the cycle.” The beauty of markets, though, is that they’re unpredictable — very few can time a parabolic rise and sell the tippy top. I can say this without feeling absurd nonetheless: I refuse to tell people my general market sentiments because I haven’t a clue how high all these assets could go, nor how far they will eventually crash down. For all I know the DJIA could triple from here, Bitcoin could go to a million, and Tether could suddenly be pegged 1 USDT = $10. Anything is possible and I have no right to proclaim otherwise.

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